Even More Minor Thoughts

Ultimately, there are only 2 approaches when one is faced by a larger neighbor or Great Power at one’s doorstep, with designs on one’s territory or regime.

… If the Great Power is inflexibly predatory, however, as China was with Tibet and Russia has been with Georgia, we come to option #2: making it too expensive for the Great Power or hostile neighbour to force the issue. In other words, deterrence.

… For Eastern Europe, therefore, and for larger Central Asian neighbours like Kazakhstan, growing their economies must also be a long term priority, so that they’ll still be able to keep pace a decade from now.

… Longer term, however, Ukraine’s prosperity requires integration into Europe’s industrial and agricultural markets.

… So, yes, spend some more on defense, as Max Boot suggests, and make the case to your people as to why. After all, “Model Cajander” stuff won’t cut it when push comes to shove, just as the UN and lies about a mythical “international community” will provide zero protection against Russia.

Even so, Viktor Yuschenko’s most important initiative for the Ukraine may not be NATO membership (which looks very doubtful) - but EU membership. In his case, it’s also (to quote James Carville) “the economy, stupid”.

Which is why American policies that recognize this element via bilateral free trade agreements with countries like Poland, the Ukraine, et. al. are just as important as any military aid or equipment we may choose to send.